Hearing Loss: Effect on Communication & Behavior

Jessica Presley, Doctoral Student
Communication Sciences and Disorders
Oct. 2, 2019

"Hearing Loss: Effect on Communication and Behavior"
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwZdV5Bu8AgdMEQtYmFaa1RGT2tuT0U0a0wtZGROZm5xTHpR/view?usp=sharing

"Hamilton" study guide by M. Nelson

Hamilton: the Biography & the Musical

Study guide Act 1

October 18

Meryl Lee Nelson mnelson@uwsp.edu

Keep in mind:

Spoiler alert: The Hamilton-Burr duel has the same outcome in the musical as it does in the book.

Dueling was outlawed. (pp. 116-17)

The Revolutionary War lasted six years until the treaty was signed with Britain in 1782 (p. 173).

The Continental Congress authorized the new nation no army (instead it relied on state militias); no uniform currency, no navy, and no president. There were trade disputes between the States (p. 219-20). It was chaos. Hence the Constitutional Convention to amend the Articles of Confederation.

1789 the US Constitution was passed. George Washington was elected President.

Biographer Ron Chernow is an enthusiastic proponent of Alexander Hamilton, and so is composer Lin-Manuel Miranda who captures the essence of the biography succinctly and colorfully in modern vernacular.

There are a lot of words in the musical Hamilton and they come fast. Some passing references are loaded. Let me alert you to some of them so you can enjoy the book and the production even more.

Musical numbers:

1. Alexander Hamilton

This one number summarizes the first two chapters of Hamilton’s biography: childhood, poverty, illness, loss of parents, and his first job. Self-educated he “wrote his way out” of the Caribbean and was sponsored to attend school in New York. Other main characters make their first appearance in this number: George Washington, Aaron Burr, Hamilton’s closest friends, his political enemies and the women in his life. It predicts his early achievements, the duel that ended his life and his legacy.

(Burr & Company)  “ . . . Started workin’, clerkin’ for his late mother’s landlord

Tradin’ sugar cane and rum and all the things he can’t afford

Scammin’ for every book he can get his hands on

Plannin’ for the future . . .”

 (Burr) His enemies destroyed his rep. America forgot him.

Thomas Jefferson and John Adams outlive Hamilton by two decades and publish attacks to destroy his reputation (p. 2) (p. 713).

Hamilton’s wife Eliza tries to restore it, but Hamilton’s writings and exploits are so extensive that Eliza dies at age 97 before his authorized biography was published (pp. 2-3).

2. Aaron Burr, Sir

Alexander Hamilton introduces himself to Aaron Burr. Hamilton asks Burr how he had graduated from Princeton in two years.

(Hamilton) “I wanted to do what you did. Graduate in two.”

Aaron Burr had applied to Princeton at age 11 but was turned down, being too young. He crammed for two years and applied again at age 13 requesting to be admitted as a junior. He was admitted as a sophomore and graduated at age 16 (p. 48).

Hamilton requested an accelerated course of study at Princeton, like Burr had done (p. 47), and was turned down.

Hamilton entered King’s College in New York, which later became Columbia University (p. 48-51). He completed his studies after the War.

(Hamilton) “God I wish there was a war. Then we could prove that we’re worth more than anyone bargained for.”

Read Alexander Hamilton’s letter to Neddy (Edward Stevens, his earliest close friend) in which Hamilton complains of “groveling and conditions of a clerk . . . and would willingly risk my life tho’ not my character to exalt my station . . .  I wish there was a war.” (pp. 30-31)

(Burr to Hamilton) “Let me offer you some free advice. Talk less. Smile more. Don’t let them know what you’re against or what you’re for.”

Burr’s background (p. 191)

Chernow contrasts Burr with Hamilton: Burr is a chameleon, a man of secrecy, an opportunist (p. 192).

Historical background: Burr started out with advantages Hamilton lacked, but Hamilton surged ahead. Both men are orphans. Both fought in the Revolution. They opened their nearby law practices within six months of each other; and each had his first child within the same year.

Dramatic device: Burr is a foil for Hamilton, that is, they have similarities but differ in ways that the composer wants to highlight about Hamilton. Throughout the musical, Burr comments with astonishment and sometimes disgust on Hamilton’s career.

3. My Shot

This song introduces Hamilton to John Laurens, Marquis de Lafayette & Hercules Mulligan. They become friends and share their motivations & ambitions.

(Lafayette) “I dream of a life without a monarchy. The unrest in France will lead to [anarchy] . . .”

Lafayette’s background (p. 96)

(Mulligan) “I’m a tailor’s apprentice . . . I’m joining the rebellion cuz I know it’s my chance to socially advance instead of sewin’ pants!”

Hercules Mulligan—one of the Sons of Liberty, a tailors apprentice, and a spy for George Washington—was Hamilton’s first new friend in NY (p.41-42)

Mulligan and Hamilton fought side by side when British warships fired on Manhattan (p. 67)

(Laurens) “But we’ll never be truly free until those in bondage have the same rights as you and me . . . Wait till I sally in on a stallion with the first black battalion . . .”

Laurens background (pp. 94-95)

Laurens leads former slaves turned free soldiers (p. 121).

(Hamilton) “I imagine death so much it feels more like a memory . . .”

This line from Hamilton’s soliloquy, will appear again (20. Yorktown) and again (Act 2, 22. The World Was Wide Enough).

 (Hamilton) “ . . . between all the bleedin’ ‘n’ fightin’ I’ve been readin’ and writin’. We need to handle our financial situation. Are we a nation of states? What’s the state of our nation?”

Even during the war as Washington’s aide Hamilton was studying and putting his mind to the task of how to make a new government work (pp. 110-111) (p. 137). This reading then led to his theories on American debt and credit outlined in the Federalist Papers (p. 157-58) and the central bank (p. 347).

                                               

(Hamilton) “I never had a group of friends before.”                   

Hamilton’s study group at King’s College was his first circle of intimates (p. 53).

Hamilton meets John Laurens & the Marquis de Lafayette on Gen. Washington’s staff; the three young men bonded like the Three Musketeers (p.94-97)

Dramatic device: Although Hamilton’s first meeting with John Laurens, Marquis de Lafayette & Hercules Mulligan happened on separate occasions the composer compresses the events into one scene to save time.

4. The Story of Tonight

Here’s a catchy tune that demonstrates the men’s bonding, their youthful exuberance, and their commitment to the Revolution.

5. The Schuyler Sisters

This introduces Phillip Schuyler and his daughters Peggy, Angelica, & Eliza. Phillip Schuyler is a wealthy, political leader and a patriot. His daughters are a bit rebellious, too—four of the five daughters eloped. Eliza will marry Hamilton in a ceremony at the Schuyler mansion.

Schuyler family background (pp. 129-30)

 (Angelica) “I’ve been reading common sense by Thomas Paine.”

She establishes herself as the assertive and intellectual one. In 11. Satisfied she matches wits with Hamilton. Later they correspond across the Atlantic Ocean on public and personal matters.

(Angelica) “And when I meet Thomas Jefferson, I’m ‘a compel him to include women in the sequel.”

Angelica actually met Thomas Jefferson in Paris when he was ambassador to France and she was married to John Church, a British Member of Parliament (p. 315-16).

6. Farmer Refuted

Samuel Seybury, writing under the pseudonym “A Westchester Farmer”, criticizes those who oppose the monarchy and favor colonial independence. As spokesman for his friends, Hamilton heckles and debates Seybury in the public forum.

While a student at King’s College Hamilton wrote an anonymous piece in the press in support of the Boston Tea Party (p. 54)

In a speech at the Liberty Pole on the Commons Hamilton went from being a “boyish speaker” to a “spellbinding young orator” (p.55).

Samuel Seybury was an Anglican clergyman and a Loyalist of the crown who wrote under the pseudonym “A Westchester Farmer” because Westchester had been granted special privileges by a royal charter and now felt threatened. Hamilton took him on in the press; he also wrote about ambition in the service of lofty ideals (pp. 57-59).

Chernow calls Hamilton at this time a “swashbuckling intellectual” (p. 59).

7. You’ll Be Back

King George is depicted as a controlling, threatening, abusive boyfriend/partner. He got my hackles up until I recognized that he provides comic relief.

(King George III) “I’m your man. . . You belong to me . . . I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love.”

(King George III warbles) “You say our love is draining and you can’t go o-o-o-o-on . . . ”

Does that sound remind you of the Beatles?

8. Right Hand Man

General George Washington is in need of assistance. He’s working with a third of what Congress promised. He needs a right hand man. Burr offers his services, but Washington has already selected Hamilton based on his military performance. This song recaps their interview between two battles.

Manhattan: cannons versus warships (p. 66-67)

Hamilton as artilery captain (pp. 72-85); popular for sharing hardships and rewarding merit (p. 73)

Burr offers his service to Washington (p. 74)

Rebels melt lead statue of King George III to make musket balls (p. 78)

Battle of Brooklyn fiasco; Lord Stirling’s surprising valor; stealthy retreat (p. 79-80)

The British take and hold New York City for seven years (p. 80-81)

(Hamilton) “As a kid in the Caribbean I wished for a war. I knew that I was poor. I knew it was the only way to Rise up!”

Alexander Hamilton’s letter to Edward Stevens (pp. 30-31)

Hamilton aspired to be a military leader, even as an undergraduate at King’s College where he joined the militia and did military drills with his classmates (p. 62-63).

Hamilton’s valor and risk taking on the Schuykill River (pp. 98-99)

He fought “in a frenzy of valor” at the Battle of Monmouth (p.115).

(Hamilton) “We gotta stop ‘em and rob ‘em of their advantages . . . Yo, lets steal their cannons.”

Hamilton & 15 other King’s College volunteers dragged more than 10 cannons from within the reach of the British to safety under the Liberty Pole (p. 67)

(Washington) “Are these the men with which I am to defend America?”

Those are George Washington’s actual words! (p. 80)

(Washington) “Hamilton, how come no one can get you on their staff? . . . Nathaniel Green and Henry Knox wanted to hire you . . .”           

Col. McDougall, Lord Stirling & Nathaniel Green take notice of Hamilton (p.72-75)

Washington & Hamilton fight in the battles at Harlem Heights & White Plains (p. 81)

“ . . . the boy genius had now been ‘discovered’ by four generals . . . [&] Henry Knox.” (p. 85)

Washington invites Hamilton to join his staff as aide-de-camp (p. 85)

Hamilton acquired confidence to function as Washington’s proxy (p. 86)

As a team Washington and Hamilton were unbeatable (p. 88)

“The pen for our army was held by Hamilton” (p.89)

Hamilton was ordered to resupply the troops with blankets, clothing & horses from Philadelphia residents using a combination of tact and firmness (p. 99)

9. A Winter’s Ball

The men are discussing the women.

(Burr) “Washington hires Hamilton right on sight. But Hamilton still wants to write, not fight . . . What do we have in common? We’re reliable with the (All Men) Ladies!”

Ron Chernow describes Alexander Hamilton as “girl crazy” and describes an early romance with Kitty Livingston (pp. 44 & 93-94). Hamilton’s pay book contains not only notes on history and economics but also amorous stories in Plutarch (p. 112).

(Burr) “The Schuyler sisters are the envy of all. Yo, if you can marry a sister, you’re rich son.”

(Hamilton) “Is it a question of if, Burr, or which one?”

10. Helpless

This song chronicles the courtship of Alexander Hamilton and Eliza Schuyler. Hamilton is a love interest of Eliza’s older sister Angelica, but Angelica introduces him to Eliza. We’ll see why soon enough (11. Satisfied).

(Eliza) “Laughin’ at my sister cuz she wants to form a harem.”

(Angelica) “I’m just saying’ if you really loved me, you would share him.”

Did Angelica really say that? In essence, yes. That’s what she suggested to Eliza in a letter in 1794 (p. 467).

And how did Hamilton feel? He called them “my dear brunettes.” He and Angelica flirted and openly expressed fondness for each other. Instead of threatening Eliza their relationship filled her with “ecstatic pride.” Angelica & Eliza’s “shared love for Hamilton seemed to deepen their sisterly bond” (p. 133-34).

(Eliza) “My father makes his way across the room to you . . . he shakes your hand and says ‘be true’.”

Why did Phillip Schuyler let his daughter marry a poor man from an unknown family?

Phillip Schuyler was close friends with George Washington. Hamilton’s place on Washington’s staff enabled him to socialize with Eliza Schuyler on equal terms (p. 129).

Hamilton established an instant rapport with Phillip Schuyler (p. 135).

“Two years later Philip Schuyler sent Eliza a delighted report on her amazing husband . . ” (pl 136).

(Hamilton) “Eliza, I don’t have a dollar to my name, an acre of land, a troop to command . . . All I have’s my honor . . .”  

Why is honor so important to Hamilton? Could that become significant later? Hamilton answered every false charge about himself. He spent 15 years trying to run down the source of those lies (p. 675).

Miranda invents this scene in which Angelica and Eliza meet Alexander at the same time. Angelica was Eliza’s older, married sister. She was not present in Morristown when Alexander began courting Eliza. (pp. 128-29). However the affection and attraction between Alexander and Angelica is consistent.

Eliza Schuyler and Alexander Hamilton’s wedding (p. 148)

11. Satisfied

At Alexander & Eliza’s wedding Angelica has a flashback to the night he met Angelica & Eliza. Lin- Manuel Miranda creates a complex interior life for Angelica, based on facts gleaned from the

Hamilton biography’s many references to her.

When Angelica lived in London she yearned for Alexander and Eliza; and Hamilton remained smitten with her (p.281).

This scene also uses some nice stage craft. Did anybody notice what it was?

12. The Story of Tonight (Reprise)

Hamilton’s Revolutionary friends celebrate his wedding. Burr arrives and the focus turns to him and his affair with a married woman (coming up in 13. Wait for it)

.

(Burr) “I see the whole gang is here.”

Were Laurens, Mulligan & Lafayette at Eliza and Alexander’s wedding in Dec. 1780? No. But it’s a pleasing image.

Were any of Hamilton’s relatives? No. Hamilton offered to pay his father’s passage from the Caribbean to attend, but James Hamilton never came, never met Eliza or the children (p. 148).

13. Wait for it

Lin-Manuel Miranda also creates a complex interior life for Aaron Burr. He’s portrayed sympathetically. I won’t say it’s justified by the facts in the biography; but it’s a choice role for an actor. Maybe Miranda sees the best in people. And it serves the dramatic function of making Burr a worthy foil for Hamilton.

(Burr) “Theodosia . . . I’m keeping her bed warm while her husband is away. He’s on the British side in Georgia. He’s tryin’ to keep the colonies in line. He can keep all of Georgia. Theodosia, she’s mine. . . ” 

Burr marries Theodosia Prevost and they name their daughter Theodosia (p. 169-70).

(Burr) “My grandfather was a fire-and-brimstone preacher . . . If there’s a reason I’m still alive when everyone who loves me has died I’m willing to wait for it. . . I am the one thing in life I can control . . . I am not falling behind or running late . . . I’m lying in wait.”

Burr’s background (p. 191-92)

(Burr) “Hamilton faces an endless uphill climb. He has something to prove; he has nothing to lose . . . he takes and he takes and he takes and he keeps winning anyway. He changes the game. He plays and he raises the stakes. . .”

14. Stay Alive

(Hamilton) “I have never seen the General so despondent . . .”

But instead of the original cast recording let’s listen to “Valley Forge Winter 1778” from the demo tape.

This illustrates to me how Washington and Hamilton developed the same outlook on a strong central government and why as Secretary of the Treasury Hamilton insisted its robust power to raise revenue.

“The situation at Valley Forge was scandalous: American soldiers were starving in the midst of a fertile American farmland.” (p. 108)

Washington & Hamilton agree on views (p. 153)

Back to the original cast recording:

Instead of promoting Hamilton, Washington appoints Charles Lee a general. At the Battle of Monmouth Lee disappoints. Washington replaces Lee with Lafayette. Lee says vindictive things. In defense of Washington, Laurens challenges Lee to a duel.

“America’s idolatry of Washington may have begun at the Battle of Monmouth due to his calm leadership and reversing the dismal course the battle had been taking (p. 114). It’s an exciting read!

Lee was court-martialed; Hamilton testified against him (p. 115-16).

Laurens challenges Lee to a duel to avenge Lee’s slurs against Washington. (p 116).

(Hamilton) “Laurens, do not throw away your shot.”

Does that give another meaning to “I am not throwing away my shot”?

15. Ten Duel Commandments

Laurens and Charles Lee fight their duel. Hamilton was Laurens’ second. Burr was Lee’s second. Laurens shoots Lee in the side and Lee yields.

Altho dueling was outlawed it did follow certain rules of etiquette. It was the first duel that Hamilton witnessed, and it seemed a dignified way to settle a dispute (p. 117).

Dramatic device: Notice the counting in the lyrics—appropriate for a musical about the first Secretary of the Treasury. We’ll hear more counting later.

16. Meet Me Inside

Hamilton’s frustration at being passed over for a command boils over. In the personality clash Hamilton leaves Washington’s service.

“Hamilton yearned for a field command, but Washington could not afford to sacrifice his most valuable aide”  (p. 107).

Washington is short-tempered with Hamilton but apologizes. Hamilton doesn’t accept (pp. 151-52).

17. That Would Be Enough

Alexander & Eliza celebrate their pregnancy. Eliza pleads with Hamilton that he ease up on his ambition and just enjoy their lives. It’s the classic Work-versus-Family balancing act.

(Hamilton) “Will you relish being a poor man’s wife, unable to provide for your life?”

Hamilton’s prenuptial letter to Eliza: “Do you soberly relish the pleasure of being a poor man’s wife.” (p. 146)

(Eliza) “I don’t pretend to know the challenges you’re facing. The worlds you keep erasing and creating in your mind. But I’m not afraid. I know who I married. So long as you come home at the end of the day that would be enough.”

18. Guns and Ships

Lafayette returns from France with guns and ships and strategy (pp. 161-62). Washington recruits Hamilton to return to the fight by giving him command of the New York light infantry. (p. 159) Hamilton proves to be a successful military commander (pp. 163-64).

19. History Has Its Eyes On You

Washington reflects on his own career as he witnesses Hamilton advance.

20. Yorktown (The World Turned Upside Down)

This is a narrative of the battle that is the turning point of the Revolution: Hamilton leads a light infantry battalion; and Lafayette leads the naval battle in Chesapeake Bay; after Hercules Mulligan provided intelligence he picked up as a spy in New York.

Siege of Yorktown, 1781, a turning point (p. 161-65)

“Because of his valiant performance at Yorktown Hamilton became a certified hero.” (p. 165)

A subtext of the musical gets this brief nod:

(Lafayette) “Immigrants:

(Lafayette & Hamilton) We get the job done.”

Hamilton’s soliloquy, a line that has appeared before (3. My Shot) and will appear again (Act 2):

(Hamilton) “I imagine death so much it feels more like a memory . . .”

21. What Comes Next?

King George III has lost his toy but can still needle the victors.

22. Dear Theodosia

Aaron Burr sings to his new daughter Theodosia while Alexander Hamilton sings to his first son Philip.

(Burr & Hamilton) “You will come of age with our young nation. We’ll bleed and fight for you. We’ll make it right for you. If we lay a strong enough foundation we’ll pass it on to you, we’ll give the world to you, and you’ll blow us all away . . .”

Hamilton rocks the cradle and describes himself as domestic & describes his 7-month old son Philip with whimsy (p. 167).

23. Non-stop

This finale of Act 1 brings together the motivations of the main characters and cross-currents of their

desires. After the war Burr and Hamilton take up the practice of law. George Washington resumes his life as a gentleman-farmer at Mount Vernon, VA. The Articles of Confederation do not meet the needs of the new government so the US Constitution is drafted and must be ratified by Congress. John Jay, James Madison & Alexander Hamilton write The Federalist Papers to fuel public support for the Constitution. Aaron Burr doesn’t participate. The Constitution is passed. It calls for a chief executive, a “president.” Washington recruits Hamilton to his Cabinet.

This song encapsulates over 120 pages from the years 1782 to 1789 (pp. 167-290) and then some.

Watch for another nice piece of stage craft at the end.

(Burr) “After the war I went back to New York.”

(Hamilton) “A-after the war I went back to New York.”

(Burr) “I finished up my studies and I practiced law.”

(Hamilton) I practiced law. Burr worked next door.”

 “Hamilton raced thru his legal studies with quicksilver speed.” (p. 169)

“Hamilton and Burr were thrust into close proximity and a competitive situation.” (p. 169)

Hamilton and Burr collaborated to defend Levi Weeks in the sensational case called the Manhattan Well Tragedy (pp. 603-06).

(Burr) “Hamilton at the Constitutional Convention . . .

Goes and proposes his own form of government . . .

Talks for six hours. The convention is listless . . .”

1786 Hamilton is elected to the New York State Assembly and sent as a delegate to the Constitutional Convention; and, yes, speaks for six hours (p. 221 & pp. 224-28)

Alexander joins forces with James Madison and John Jay to write a series of essays

Defending the new United States Constitution entitled the Federalist Papers.

The plan was to write a total of twenty-five essays, the work divided evenly among the three men.

In the end they wrote eighty-five essays in the span of six months. John Jay got sick after writing five.

James Madison wrote twenty-nine. Hamilton wrote the other fifty-one.”

Just like that. (pp. 174, 223 & 248)

(Washington) “They are asking me to lead. I am doing the best I can to get the people that I need. I’m asking you to be my right hand man.”

(Hamilton) “Treasury or State?”

(pp. 270-72; p. 288)

(Angelica) “He will never be satisfied . . .”

(Eliza) “What would be enough?”

(Hamilton) “I am not throwing away my shot!”

(Washington, Mulligan, Laurens, Lafayette) “History has its eyes on you.”

(Burr) “Why do you assume you’re the smartest in the room?”

(Hamilton) “I am not throwing away my shot!”

End of Act 1

If time permits we’ll listen to the opening of Act 2 and dissect it. We’ll compare some themes that carry through from Act 1 to Act 2.

How certain should you be about that? by Mike W. and Bill K.

How Certain Should You Be About That? 

LIFE Presentation, Oct 16, 2019 

Mike Wrzinski and Bill Kirby 

Description: 

People easily fool themselves into believing they know more than they actually do. And they are often fooled by others into believing things that are more untrue than true. We'll cover the first condition by reviewing the major points brought out by N. N. Taleb's Book, "The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable", and the second condition by examples from "How to Lie With Statistics" by Darrell Huff. 98.7% of the people who attend this class will come away satisfied. You can trust us! 

(photoshopped or no?)1 

1 Not! - https://www.rainforestresort.com/spruce-tree.htm 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 1/26 

How Certain Should You Be About That? 

The Books 2 3 

 2 TBS - 2nd edition, 2010! - https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness- 

Fragility/dp/081297381X 3 HTL - Reissue Editon, - https://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 2/26 

TBS - The Black Swan 

Overview4 

1. Sold close to 3 million copies. 

2. Published in 32 languages. 

3. 36 weeks on NYT Bestseller list. 

4. Described by The Sunday Times, UK, as one of the 

twelve most infuential books since WW II. 

5. 2nd book in Taleb's INCERTO series. The other 4 - 

a) Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of 

Chance in Life and in the Markets. Deals with the fallibility of human knowledge. 

b) The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms. 

c) Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. Builds on previous 

books. 

d) Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life. " having a 

measurable risk when taking a major decision -- is necessary for fairness, commercial efficiency, and risk management, as well as being necessary to understand the world."5 Stubborn minority example. 

4 wiki has links to original sources, - 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable 5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skin_in_the_Game_(book) 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 3/26 

TBS - The Black Swan 

STOP! What's a Black Swan?6 1. Story of black swans. 

2. Black Swan Event, BSE, capitalized. Def. pg xxii 

a) "..lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because 

nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility." 

b) "it carries an extreme impact" 

c) "..after the fact, human nature makes us concot explanations 

for its occurance, making it explainable and predictable 

3. Uncertainty7, and randomness is key. 

4. BSE's are subjective, in that some may see them before they 

happen. 

5. What we don't know is far more relevant than what we do know. 

6 Source - Spotted in ScotlandMay 21, 2019 - https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/48338856 7 Central idea is "focus on consequences, not probability" p211 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 4/26 

!!Snap Quiz!! 

Relax. It won't be on the final. 

1. If A=B, and B=C, then A=C8 

a) true 

b) false 

c) could never happen 

2. 10 + 10 = 209 

a) true 

b) false 

c) stop asking tricky questions 

Bonus - What's the rule? 

2, 4, 8 

Solve by giving me a 3-number sequence demonstrating the rule - I'll say 'yes' or 'no'.10 If yes, what's the rule? 

8 in the abstract, a). In the real world, c) find me an A and a B that are equal. differ in at least position in space 9 a) for number systems base 3 and above. 10 + 10 = 100 in binary arithmetic Careful! We opererate under unconscious assumptions 10 From Veritasium, 'Can You Solve This? - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKA4w2O61Xo especially 1:35 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 5/26 

TBS - The Black Swan 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb 11 

(Borrowed from wiki...) 

Born 1960, Lebanon 

essayist, scholar, statistician, and former trader and risk analyst (21 years) 

work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty. 

bachelor and master of science degrees from the University of Paris. 

MBA from the Wharton School 

PhD in Management Science from the University of Paris - dissertation focused on the mathematics of derivatives pricing 

Taleb considers himself less a businessman than an epistemologist of randomness. 11 wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb#Incerto 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 6/26 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb 

Twitter How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 7/26 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb 

Youtube12 12 Intransitivity of correlation - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgXda891uNw (watch for 3 

minutes - TBS is NOT math oriented and is quite approachable.... Massive Open Online Course Another, (I prefer)Tom over Harry, Harry over John, but John over Tom. Attributes! 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 8/26 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb 

My Observations on N.N.Taleb 

1. Doesn't suffer 'fools' lightly. Fool means pretentious, non-skin in 

game, loose with definitions, etc. 

2. Writes in very readable text for laymen, but does serious mathematical 

work to back up. 

3. Very direct in his statements and criticisms. In many cases it's 

justified. But it can feel harsh if you take it personnaly. 

4. Unique insights into real life, especially it's uncertainity. 

5. Wants knowledge to be applicable to the real world. 

6. Would not be effective in real-time debates. How do you debate 

mathematics? How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 9/26 

True / Trustworthy? 

General 

How do you judge when an idea that's new to you, is true and valid, and can be trusted? 

1. An inner nudge? 

2. An authority figure says it is? 

3. Supports what you already believe? 

4. Accurate in describing new events, and predicting? 

5. Maybe, when "The lights just went on?" Happened to me during 

preparation. Thank You! 

6. How do you know that you are seeing the whole of an elephant and 

not just a part? (We may have a LIFE class next semester. Bill?) 

For me, in the last 10 years, or so, I try to get to the very heart of it. The epistemology. 

1. Then, if that's true, and the rest logically follows, all's good. 

Until proven otherwise by later information, of course. 

2. Sometimes, the ideas' discovery process is critical. How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 10/26 

True / Trustworthy? 

Specifics for This Book 

1. I'm attracted to persons who speak truth to power. 

2. Economics - “Ultimate Foundation of Economic Science” - LIFE class, Oct. 18, 2013, (Contact me if interested in a copy) 

3. Ludwig von Mises, “Humans Act, Objects React”(my words) 

4. Frederich Hayek, Nobel Prize in Economics, 1974 

5. Vilfredo Pareto - "80/20, Normal Curve and Other Math of Interest 

Today", LIFE class, April 23, 2018 (Contact me if interested in a copy) 

6. Luck - Why does fate favor one person over another? 

a) "Karma: If It's Not Real, It Should Be", LIFE Class, October 2, 

2015. 

b) What do we know and how do we know it? 

c) Accuracy of Communications 

7. The Silver Rule - Do not treat others the way you would not like 

them to treat you. (symmetry, "Skin In The Game", introduction, idea of non-interference) How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 11/26 

Ludwig von Mises 

The Ultimate Foundation of Economic Science, Ludwig von Mises, 158 pages 

First published in 1962 This is the 2006 edition. Print, PDF, EPUB, HTML versions available here - http://mises.org/document/120/Ultimate- Foundation-of-Economic-Science-The 

Mises was 81 years old when he wrote this book. 

"There are two senses in which this book is indeed ultimate: it deals with the very core of economics as a science, and it is the last book that he wrote." (above website) 

Epistemological Problems of Economics Free pdf, epub, html, 

https://mises.org/library/epistemological-problems-economics 

If you can contact N.N. Taleb, ask why he seems to ignore Mises. Is it the problem of Induction? How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 12/26 

Frederich Hayek 

Noble Prize in Economics, 1974.13 Most famous for "The Road to Serfdom"14. Video based on Look Magazine, Feb. 194515,text16. 

Banquet speech highlights - 17 "It is that the Nobel Prize confers on an individual an authority which in economics no man ought to possess. This does not matter in the natural sciences. Here the influence exercised by an individual is chiefly an influence on his fellow experts; and they will soon cut him down to size if he exceeds his competence." The Prize Lecture, The Pretence of Knowledge, 18 

"The theory which has been guiding monetary and financial policy during the last thirty years (1944!), a.....” 

13http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1974/hayek-facts.html 14http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_to_Serfdom 15http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkz9AQhQFNY Hayek's 'The Road to Serfdom' in Five Minutes 16http://mises.org/books/TRTS/ 17http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1974/hayek-speech.html 18http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1974/hayek-lecture.html 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 13/26 

Frederich Hayek - Taleb Connection 

1. Forecasting - Prediction 

2. Methods used in physics versus social 

sciences 

3. Taleb says natural sciences are far more 

complicated (due to uncertainty) and Hayek shouldn't have been so trusting of them.19 

4. Taleb calls this nerd knowledge, or 

Platonicity. Hayek called it scientism. Platonicity, pg xxix, mistake map for territory,focus on pure/well defined forms. 

Taleb - 

“Prediction requires knowing about technologies that will be discovered in the future. But that very knowledge would almost automatically allow us to start developing those technologies right away. Ergo, we do not know what we will know” pg 173 

19 TBS - Page 181 Chapter, "How to Look For Bird Poop", section "They still ignore Hayek" Bird Poop - pg 168 '1965 Bell Labs, discovered cosmic background microwave radiation' 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 14/26 

Vilfredo Pareto 1. 80% land owned by 20% population, Italy 1896, 80% 

peas produced by 20% pods. 

2. Power Laws apply to distribution of income, TBS, 

Pg 219 

3. 80/20 is 50/01 rule, reapplied. In chapter, "The 

Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud, section, Extremistan and the 80/20 rule. 

4. 97% of book sales by 20% of authors. TBS, pg 235. 

5. literary non-fiction, just 20 books out of 8000 

represent half the sales. TBS, pg 235 

6. Extremistan vs. mediocristan How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 15/26 

Two stories 

“You need a story to displace a story.” pg. xxxi 

1. How to Learn From the Turkey, pg 40 (problem of inductive 

knowledge)20 2. The Ludic Fallacy, or, The Uncertainty of the 

Nerd, Coin flip - Fat Tony vs Dr. John, pg 124 2122 20 Source - http://mentalfloss.com/article/71086/15-facts-about-turkeys-youll-gobble-right 21 Source - https://twitter.com/fattestfattony 22 Source - http://www.theaccountant-online.com/comments/youth-in-accountancy-series-robert-a-smith-5895275 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 16/26 

Extremistan vs. Mediocristan 

Table 1, pg 36 

Attributes of the two broad categories of event space. 

Mediocristan Extremistan (Comments) 

1 Nonscalable Scalable dentist vs 

author pg 27 evolution (DNA) is scalable pg 30 

2 Mild or type 1 randomness Wild (even 

superwild) or type 2 randomness 3 The most typical member is 

mediocre 

The most "typical" is either giant of dwarf, i.e., there is no typical member pg 29 

IQ = 100 vs authors of J.K. Rowling fame. 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 17/26 

4 Winners get a small segment 

of the total pie 

plumber vs politician? 

5 Example: audience of an opera singer before the gramophone 

Today's audience for an artist 

larger audience, more rewards, but more risk. 

Globalization = largest audience, most chance of BSE. 6 More likely to be found in 

our ancestral environment 

More likely to be found in our modern environment 7 Impervious to the Black Swan Vulnerable to 

the Black Swan 

Casino with only slot machines vs open-stakes blackjack 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 18/26 

Winner-takes- almost-all effects 

8 Subject to gravity There are no 

physical constraints on what a number can be 

MONEY in modern world, MMT. This is the 'AHA!' moment I mentioned earlier 9 Corresponds (generally) to physical quantities, i.e., height 

Corresponds to numbers, say, wealth 

Human accumulations 

10 As close to utopian equality as reality can spontaneously deliver 

Dominated by extreme winner- take-all inequality 11 Total is not determined by a 

single instance or observation 

Total will be determined by a small number of extreme events23 

stock market pg 275 "In the last fifty years, the ten most extreme days in the financial markets represent half the returns. Ten days in fifty years." 

23 Not Taleb's figures, but illustrative. https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-of-missing-10- 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 19/26 

It 12 When you observe for a while 

takes a long you can get to know what's 

time to know going on 

what's going on 13 Tyranny of the collective Tyranny of the 

accidental 

Can't lose a lot of weight in one day 14 Easy to predict from what 

you see and extend to what you do not see 

Hard to predict from past information 15 History crawls History makes 

jumps 16 Events are distributed according to the "bell curve" (the GIF) or its variations 

The distribution is Mandelbrotian "gray" Swans (tractable scientifically) or totally intractable Black Swans 

best-days-in-sp-500-2014-3 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 20/26 

Two Ways to Approach Randomness, pg 284 

The Platonic Approach 

Skeptical Empiricism and the a-Platonic School 

(Comments) 

1 Focuses on the 

inside of the Platonic fold 

Interested in what lies outside the Platonic fold. 2 "You keep 

criticizing these models. These models are all we have" 

Respect for those who have the guts to say "I don't know" 

mistake the map for the territory. 

3 Dr. John Fat Tony Derived by 

theory vs experience 4 Thinks of ordinary 

fluctuations as a dominant sorce of randomness, with jumps as an afterthought 

Thinks of Black Swans as a dominant source of randomness 

5 Top-down Bottum-up 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 21/26 

Would 6 Wears dark suits, 

ordinarily not wear white shirts; 

suits (except to speaks in a boring 

funerals) tone 7 Precisely wrong Prefers to be broadly 

right 8 Everything needs to 

fit some grand, general socieoeconomic model and "the rigor of economic theory"; frowns on the "descriptive" 

Minimal theory, considers theorizing as a disease to resist 

Theory is more important than practice. 

9 Built their entire 

apparatus on the assumptions that we can compute probabilities 

Does not believe that we can easily compute probabilities 

10 Model: Laplacian 

mechanics, the world and the economy like a clock 

Model: Sextus Empiricus and the school of evidence-based, minimum- theory empirical medicine 

Is medical practice returning to this? 24 

24 wiki - Evidence-based medicine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evidence-based_medicine 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 22/26 

Develops 11 Relies on 

intuitions from scientific papers, 

practice, goes from goes from books to 

observations to books practice 12 Inspired by 

physics, relies on abstract mathematics 

Not inspired by any science, uses messy mathematics and computational methods 13 Ideas based on 

beliefs, on what they think they know 

Ideas based on skepticism, on the unread books in the library 

"Everyone is ignorant of almost everything" (me) 14 Assumes 

Mediocristan as a starting point 

Assumes Extremistan as a starting point 

15 Poor science Sophisticated craft 16 Seeks to be 

perfectly right in a narrow model, under precise assumptions 

Seeks to be approximately right across a broad set of eventualities 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 23/26 

The Narrative Fallacy 

(Optional)  
“Prediction, not narration, is the real test of our understanding of the world.” Pg 133 

“Elders are repositories of complicated inductive learning that includes information about rare events...a paper in Science showed that elephant matriarchs play the role of superadvisors on rare events.” Pg 78 How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 24/26 

How To Get Even With the Black Swan, pg 295-298 

Simple List 

1. Be “skeptical of confirmation-though only when errors are 

costly-not disconfirmation.” 

2. Likes the “randomness that produces the texture of life, the 

positive accidents..” 

3. “I try to worry about matters I can do something 

about”. 

4. “I am no-nonsense and practical in academic 

matters, and intellectual when it comes to practice.” 

5. “Missing a train is only painful if you run after it!” 

6. “You stand above the rat race and the pecking order, not outside 

of it, if you do so by choice.” 

7. Defense mechanism, Aesop's fable - ..”consider that the grapes we cannot (or did not) reach are sour) 

8. “It is more difficult to be a loser in a game you set up 

yourself.” 

9. Finish by reading the 3-paragraph section, THE END, pg 297. How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 25/26 

THANK YOU! for your time, attention, and patience 

25 picture source - https://forex.eu.com/black-swan/ 

How Certain Should You Be About That? - LIFE, Oct 16, 2019 26/26